Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
